"Fed in Focus: Economic Forecasts Could Stir Financial Markets"

Hey everyone, today we have a lot of relevant information about the Federal Reserve's decision regarding interest rates in the United States.

Up-to-the-minute analysis talks about the Fed, by Igor Mundstock

Expectation / Previous analysis

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has the difficult task of balancing raising interest rates with reassuring markets amid the banking crisis.

The expectation is for an increase of a quarter of a percentage point in the target interest rate, from 4.75% to 5%.

CME's FedWatch tool indicates an 86.4% chance of this happening.

However, rising interest rates could be detrimental to the banking system, which is already facing many problems. Worries about banks have already caused some economists to consider a pause in the tightening cycle. Goldman Sachs , for example, predicts a momentary halt in the fight against inflation, although it maintains its forecast for the rest of the year.

Markets have been buffeted by the banking woes in recent months, adding to the pressure on the Fed. The central bank has already stepped in to guarantee deposits at some banks and provide more favorable loans for up to a year. The expectation now is that Powell can explain his dual policy, that is, how to balance raising interest rates with protecting the banking system.

Ultimately, the Fed faces a dilemma:
raise interest rates to control inflation and risk further trouble for the banking system, or pause the tightening cycle and allow inflation to continue above the Fed's target. It is a difficult decision that has important implications for the US economy and, by extension, the world economy. We will closely follow the unfolding of this story.

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